The economic toll the coronavirus pandemic has had on the U.S. cannot be understated. We went from a very healthy, prosperous economy with full employment as recently as February to the largest unemployment increases since 1975.
Projections at this time are that 22 million jobs were lost in April alone and that the unemployment rate surged to 16.1 percent. It was 3.5 percent in February. Millions of people in the hospitality and leisure industries have found themselves out of work, airlines and cruise ship companies have been severely crippled and sports stadiums and the local businesses that they support have been shuttered.
As a writer who has authored hundreds of articles about domestic and international economics, employment trends and Federal Reserve decisions, the economic costs of this pandemic are all too real. For those who were gainfully employed and enjoying their lives just months ago, the new reality has thrown them a curve ball that they could have never anticipated and left rent or mortgage payments, utility payments and loans unpaid and concern about how to keep putting food on the table or affording needed medications.
This economic damage and the cost to livelihoods of many Americans is juxtaposed to the damage that the coronvirus and COVID-19 pose to the public-at-large; past, present and future.
Those in charge of public health, many governors, epidemiologists, disease modelers and other experts have pointed out that we may be in jeopardy of losing our hard-fought gains if we re-open the U.S. economy too soon. In several states, the numbers of new confirmed cases, and the death toll, continue to climb. In Arizona, just last night, there were 33 new deaths from COVID-19.
The number of new cases in the U.S. is expanding by 2 to 4 percent daily. There continues to be more than 1,000 deaths daily nationwide from COVID-19. While the infection heat-map a month ago highlighted the intense concentrations in major urban centers, the infection centers have now spread to more rural locations.
Leading Expert Questions Our Rush
Even Dr. Anthony Fauci asked the question: “It’s the balance of something that’s a very difficult choice, like how many deaths and how much suffering are you willing to accept to get back to what you want to be, some form of normality, sooner rather than later?” in a recent interview.
When it comes to any urgency to re-open the economy, the question becomes; “do we suffer additional economic pain for some time longer or do we risk tens of thousands more dead Americans and hospitals overwhelmed?”
Acting on stay-at-home orders and employing social distancing has allowed the U.S. to dodge the bullet that would have been 1 to 2 million fatalities by this time, but those gains could fall by the wayside as the push for “normalcy” returns and community infection returns.
Although there is still much that is not understood about the current SARS-CoV2 coronavirus, there are some facts that cannot be ignored. This virus acts like many other viruses. It spreads person-to-person through the air and through contaminated surfaces. If people are staying at home or maintaining social distance, it is very hard for the virus to spread.
If you have one infected person — maybe a person who is asymptomatic and who has no idea they are infected — and they are a vector out in the community touching surfaces, exhaling virus droplets into the air or even sneezing, they will infect other people. We know from research that they are likely to infect at least 3 other people.
When we decide that we are going to return to “normal” or even a new level of normal, we are placing more infected people among those who are not yet infected. There is no disputing this fact.
The virus needs a “vector” to allow its continued spread. With the country “re-opening,” those tens of thousands of vectors are now back in circulation among co-workers, restaurant customers, salon customers, public transportation hubs and bar patrons. While measures will be taken to mitigate the spread of the virus, with masks worn, surfaces cleaned and social distancing observed, it only takes one small mistake or oversight with a contagious virus to further its spread. It is human nature to make mistakes, or forget to do, or not do something.
Because of the reality and certainty of these mistakes, repeated thousands of times a minute across the country, the risk of a new wave of infections, and a growing new rate of community spread will be a reality.
There still is no proven therapeutic intervention for this virus and there still is no vaccine. Even Remdesivir only offers a marginal reduction in actual sick days, and a tiny decrease in fatalities. But, it is no silver bullet.
A vaccine is still a year away; one that can be offered in widespread use. That assumes that a working vaccine is found. There has never been a vaccine produced for HIV and there was no vaccine produced for SARS. Some experts speculate that a vaccine for SARS-CoV2 may not work.
Seasonal Flu; a Dangerous One-Two Punch
There is another reality that troubles infectious disease specialists, virologists and public health officials right now; the inevitability that the seasonal flu will reemerge in the fall (by October) and then we will have the coronavirus pandemic and the seasonal flu at the same time.
This provides several challenges. One is that it tests the ability of hospitals to address both illnesses at the same time. There is also the concern that if a person, with comorbidities, can survive COVID-19, and they get the flu concurrently, it is much more likely they will die. There is also a great possibility that no other preexisting comorbidities have to exist and that a healthy individual who gets both viruses simultaneously would succumb to the impact on organs and the reaction of the immune system.
Many states have faced recent protests at their capitals by those demanding that we return to a more normal existence and re-open our economy. Many of the protesters have ignored social distancing safety measures and may end up increasing infection rates.
Meanwhile, in the UK, the death toll takes the region to the top of the list for Europe in COVID-19 deaths. The UK now has more than 29,500 deaths. France, just across the channel, has decided that it will re-open for business again, despite more than 25,500 deaths.
Turning on the radio today, I happened upon a conservative radio host who I had not listened to previously. I had hoped that there might be some tidbits of wisdom in this pundit’s dialogue. Instead, he talked about making a trip to the grocery store and all of the losers he observed wearing face masks. He disparaged these people as pawns of the media and brainwashing.
This guy said he was in his 60s. He better hope that he did not contract the coronavirus on his shopping visit and that he has any comorbidities. He may learn a painful lesson in his own ignorance.
Ignorance is Bliss; and it Kills
Forecasts are for 3,000 deaths daily in the U.S. by June. Many will be people who think that this virulent virus is a joke and safety precautions are for people who are duped by an over-reacting media or people who are just over-reacting because this is just like the flu.
Unfortunately, the behaviors and lack of caution of these people who are living in an information bubble will impact everyone and will lead to more infections and more deaths. They will choose to ignore the 257,303 deaths worldwide due to this pandemic. They will ignore the information that suggests that the death rate has been significantly higher in China and that the death rate in Italy is believed to be 4 to 5 times higher than the reported fatality numbers.
If the president continues to push for reopening the country, and the infection and fatality numbers climb much higher as a result, it could prove to be a politically disastrous decision. The irony is that if that happens, the November elections may have to be postponed.
In the meantime, I will have to change my party affiliation to independent and continue to shelter-in-place. It will be difficult to see hard-won gains thrown away. It will be difficult to see tens of thousands more Americans face deaths in hospitals when their loved ones cannot say good-bye. All of this because we have to rush and ignore science and experts and common sense.
