Coronavirus Death Toll in U.S. Likely Much Higher – more than 5.8%

The 5.8% death rate in the U.S. is what is focused on most and what comes out of simple math. But, what most people don’t think about is the large “unrecovered” number that provides a glimpse into the real fatality rate.

Going forward, between the end of May and into August, when many forecasts suggest a 160,000 U.S. fatality rate, the actual death rate percentage will likely rise significantly based on what we know of the projected rate based on the unrecovered population and the actual death rates in European countries. (from 11-20%)

In Arizona, two weeks after the restrictions were lifted, the number of infections, hospital admissions and deaths have all gone up. The jump is stack in contrast to the downward trend that had begun just before restrictions were lifted, that the reversal in direction is troubling to public health officials. It is some of the first concrete proof that lifting restrictions was a big mistake and was done too early. This is at the end of May and the next two weeks will show the result of people congregating during the Memorial Day weekend.

The pressure of those who are simply bored with staying at home, or looking at the short-term economic cost, versus the long-term rise in deaths, have much to do with what will be an even worse phase of this pandemic.

Between the deaths that will occur in the next 2-3 months, and the second wave that will come in the September-November period, the numbers of cases and the death toll will be much worse than what the current numbers indicate.

For those who are still dwelling on tiny percentages that represent current deaths as a percentage of the entire U.S. population, you have a lot to learn.

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